BLOG: Latest Idaho poll shows little change in Trump, Clinton support since July
06 Sep

BLOG: Latest Idaho poll shows little change in Trump, Clinton support since July

A poll released Monday shows support for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Idaho hasn’t changed since early July, with Trump ahead by almost 2-to-1 but still at under 50 percent support.

The latest poll, which was done from Aug. 18 to 31, shows 44 percent support for the Republican presidential candidate Trump and 23 percent for the Democratic candidate Clinton. A poll from early July came up with the same numbers for both candidates.

The poll of 602 people, which was done by Dan Jones and Associates and has a 4 percent margin of error, showed 13 percent support as of late August for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 2 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 12 percent saying they would vote for some other candidate and 5 percent undecided.

Trump’s support among self-identified Republicans has stayed basically the same in Idaho since early July, with 75 percent of them saying they would vote for him and just 2 percent saying they favor Clinton, but Clinton appears to have made some progress in locking down her party’s faithful — 86 percent of self-identified Democrats in the poll said they would support her, up from 76 percent in the last poll. The number of Democrats saying they would vote for Trump has fallen from 5 percent in the last poll to 1 percent now; the number saying “someone else” fell from 9 percent to 6 percent, while the number of Johnson supporters among Democrats grew a bit, from 4 percent to 6 percent. (Given the size of the poll and the number of Democrats in Idaho and in the sample, which would be smaller than the number of both Republicans and independents, I would be cautious about reading too much into some of the smaller swings.)

The numbers among independents are basically the same in the latest poll as they were in the one before — 31 percent for Trump, 24 percent for Clinton, 18 percent for Johnson. Seventeen percent of independents said they would vote for someone else, 6 percent undecided and 3 percent Stein; these numbers were at 16, 7, and 5 percent, respectively, in the last poll.

Although the poll only asked about those four candidates, there are going to be eight people on the presidential ballot in Idaho — these four plus Scott Copeland on the Constitution Party line; Darrell Castle, who is the national Constitution Party’s nominee but is appearing on Idaho’s ballot as an independent; Evan McMullin, a conservative who is running for president as an independent; and Rocky De La Fuente, a businessman who campaigned unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Both McMullin and Johnson have set up their campaign headquarters in Salt Lake City, Utah, a normally reliable Republican state where Trump isn’t polling as well as a Republican presidential candidate should, which some are attributing to Mormons being put off by Trump’s personal style and by his rhetoric and policy proposals on immigration and Islam. McMullin is Mormon himself, a Provo native and Brigham Young University graduate.

According to Dan Jones’ latest poll, 51 percent of Mormon respondents in Idaho said they would vote for Trump, and only 6 percent said Clinton. Sixteen percent said Johnson, 18 percent said someone else, 6 percent are undecided and 1 percent said Stein.

Regardless of who they are voting for, Idahoans are very divided on who they expect to win the election nationally — 37 percent think Clinton will be the next president, 36 percent said Trump, 21 percent don’t know and 6 percent said they expect one of the third-party candidates to take it.

Author: Nathan Brown
Date: September 6, 2016
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